Capturing Delayed Feedback in Conversion Rate Prediction via Elapsed-Time Sampling

نویسندگان

چکیده

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner catch up with evolving data distribution. However, conversions usually do not happen immediately after user clicks. This may result inaccurate labeling, which called delayed feedback problem. In previous studies, problem handled either by waiting positive label a long period time, or consuming negative sample on its arrival and then insert duplicate when conversion happens later. Indeed, there trade-off between more accurate labels utilizing fresh data, considered existing works. To strike balance this trade-off, we propose Elapsed-Time Sampling Delayed Feedback Model (ES-DFM), relationship observed distribution true Then optimize expectation via importance sampling under elapsed-time We further estimate weight each instance, used as loss function CVR prediction. demonstrate effectiveness ES-DFM, conduct extensive experiments public private industrial dataset. Experimental results confirm that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art results.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2159-5399', '2374-3468']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v35i5.16587